India decisively withstood global headwinds in 2023 and is likely to remain as the world's fastest-growing major economy on the back of growing demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rate regime and robust foreign exchange reserves. Despite widespread pessimism witnessed among the developed nations and the worsening geopolitical situation, India recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 6.1 per cent in the March quarter. The growth moved up to 7.8 per cent in the June quarter and was 7.6 per cent in the September quarter. For the first six months of this fiscal, the growth was 7.7 per cent.
India's services sector remained in contraction territory for the third straight month in July, as business activity, new orders and employment declined further largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic and local restrictions, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index rose from 41.2 in June to 45.4 in July, but was stuck in the red due to subdued demand conditions amid the COVID-19 crisis. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
'The government is trying to kickstart the investment cycle in India and while the corporate investments are yet to gather momentum, there are early signs of the same.'
'Indian macro conditions have never been better, and many businesses will safely compound earnings over the next five years.'
Indian economy is gathering momentum in the second quarter, though inflation would continue to average above the central bank's comfort zone of 6 per cent, said an article in the RBI's monthly bulletin released on Thursday. The consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation shot up significantly to 7.44 per cent in July, from 4.87 per cent in the preceding month, mainly due to soaring prices of tomato, vegetables and other food items. In his address to the nation on the Independence Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to take more steps to contain price rise.
The report added that the rapid adjustments in the monetary and fiscal policies were well calibrated and not excessive, enabling the government to contemplate a return to fiscal consolidation in 2010-11 and an early normalisation of the monetary policy stance.
In 2022, gold emerged as the top performer among all conventional asset classes with over 14 per cent returns mainly owing to the depreciation of the rupee.
'To the believers of crypto regulations, I have only one question to ask, how will you regulate it?'
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Markets ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week, helped by a sharp rebound on Friday. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent and the Nifty gained 169.5 points or 0.87 per cent.
One could argue that India is not troubled in the same way as China is by a declining population and structural problems in real estate/construction and finance. But India has serious trade and fiscal imbalances, and excessive dependence on capital expenditure by the government, points out T N Ninan.
'Over the next two quarters, markets will be guided by observing the earnings resilience of corporates during the second lockdown, progress of the monsoon and the damage, if any, to rural spending power due to the second wave.'
After tabling the Survey, Jaitley told reporters that fiscal deficit for the current year will be 4.5 per cent which needs to go down further in the next two years.
Pressure has been mounting on the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates in the wake of declining retail inflation and the need to fuel growth momentum. However, the RBI will have to do a tightrope walk as globally interest rates are inching upwards.
A likely easing in inflationary pressures in the forthcoming months will reopen the window for the RBI to once again prioritise growth and ease its interest rates.
India's services sector activity eased in August but growth rates for new orders remain elevated, as services firms indicated the sharpest upturn in new export business which acted as a catalyst for firms to expand their workforces as well as output, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. Despite falling from 62.3 in July to 60.1 in August, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index indicated one of the strongest increases in output seen since mid-2010. For the 25th straight month, the headline figure was above the neutral 50 threshold.
Hopes of revival and earnings growth in 2020, surprise tax cuts, and robust foreign flows - thanks to easy global monetary policies - are a few reasons why the markets have managed to digest the low GDP footprint. Select bluechips such as Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints, and ICICI Bank have gained sharply this year. On the other hand, YES Bank, Zee Entertainment, and Indiabulls Housing have seen a sharp fall.
'Making money in such markets is typically harder and investors need to put in considerable effort to identify stock ideas over the year.'
In all, RBI has cut interest rates by 110 bps this year. But this has not yet led to a boost in economic activity. While the growth rate has slowed to a five-year low, consumer confidence is waning and foreign direct investment has plateaued.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday retained the GDP growth forecast at 9.5 per cent for the current fiscal but cautioned that the economic recovery is not yet strong enough to be self-sustaining and durable.
With the 'busy credit season' which witnesses a spurt in loan demand going up, it would be good to lower the rates ahead of it
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.3 per cent in current financial year aided by investment and domestic demand. According to a World Bank report released on Tuesday, India continues to show resilience against the backdrop of a challenging global environment. In India, which accounts for the bulk of South Asia region, growth is expected to remain robust at 6.3 per cent in 2023-24, India Development Update of the World Bank said.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
'With China falling out of favour, India is where investors see the demographic and digital dividend apart from the benefits of reforms playing out.' 'Your prime minister has also done a great job of sharing this story with the world.'
Against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) projection of 7.1 per cent, India's first quarter (Q1) 2024-25 (FY25) gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 6.7 per cent. This is in line with market expectations and significantly lower than the 7.8 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2023-24 (FY24) and 8.2 per cent in Q1FY24. The quarter witnessed decreased government consumption and investment spending due to the parliamentary election.
Indian equity markets had a good run in the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23), with the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 hitting fresh 52-week highs. While the Sensex scaled up to a peak 64,718, the Nifty50 hit Mt 19,189. As the markets now prepare to enter the second half (H2) of CY23, all eyes are on global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as to when they will pause and pivot as regards their interest-rate cycle.
The BSE Mid-cap index gained 1.1% while the Small-cap index surged 1.3%, outperforming the benchmark indices
If the concerns over risking political capital are overcome, the long-term gains for the Indian economy will be immense, asserts A K Bhattacharya.
The banking sector in India is reeling under Rs 8 lakh crore of non performing assets (NPAs) or bad loans, of which PSU banks alone account for over Rs 6 lakh crore.
A stable dollar will at minimum reduce incremental cross-currency pain for Indian cos.
Top Sensex gainers include Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, HUL, and Maruti, rallying up to 5.87 per cent. While, ICICI Bank, NTPC and ITC slipped up to 0.13 per cent.
This is the 22nd consecutive month that the manufacturing PMI has remained above the 50-point mark.
'We don't have to go abroad for anything.' 'Anyone who thinks we have a lot to learn from the US needs to have his head examined.' 'We are in a new era.'
"We see the Indian economy rebounding from our projected 6.1 per cent growth this fiscal year to something like 7 per cent in the next fiscal year (2020). We see the factors that will support growth, including monetary policy stimulus, working their way through the pipeline," Jonathan Ostry, Deputy Director, Asia Pacific Department at the IMF, told reporters.
South and South-West Asia could witness an economic growth of 5.3 per cent in 2015, which will be a four-year high.
The Indian economy is rapidly normalising towards pre-pandemic activity levels, even as uncertainty exists about coronavirus mutations and repeated infection waves, industrialist Kumar Mangalam Birla said on Wednesday. Vaccination is picking up pace, which would improve India's resilience against a potential third wave, the chairman of Aditya Birla Group said while virtually addressing shareholders at the AGM of group firm UltraTech Cement Ltd. Moreover, various steps taken by the RBI and the government have helped in containing the economic disruptions of the pandemic, Birla added.
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Costlier onion and other vegetables pushed up inflation for the third month in a row to 6.1 per cent in August, making it difficult for the RBI to cut rate in the monetary policy review due later this week.
The finance ministry on Thursday raised concerns over the possible impact of El Nio conditions on India this year, saying if recent forecasts came true, the country could see lower agricultural output and higher inflation. "Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Nio conditions in India this year. "If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices," the ministry said in its monthly economic review.
However, financial flows to the economy remained constrained because of decline in the amount of equity finance raised from the capital markets and stress in the NBFC sector, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman pointed out.
The banking sector is set to move at a fast pace from hereon.
